Why Is Canyon Lake Level Low?

If you've been out to Canyon Lake recently, you've probably noticed a startling drop in the water level. People are frustrated, rumors are flying, and there's a lot of confusion online about what's really going on. Is the lake drying up for good? Are developers secretly draining it? Are they selling the water downriver?

Let’s clear the air. We attended a recent meeting with the Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority (GBRA), the Texas Water Company, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers—the folks who actually manage Canyon Lake. Here's the straightforward truth about why the lake is low, what’s being done, and why there's still hope.

1. The Real Culprit: Drought

At its core, the biggest reason Canyon Lake is low is simple: drought. We’re not talking about a few dry months. We’re talking about five to seven years of abnormally low rainfall, especially over the watershed north of the lake where inflow actually matters.

To put it in perspective, over the past five years, Canyon Lake should have received about 1.25 million acre-feet of water. It’s only gotten 220,000 acre-feet—less than one-fifth of the expected amount. That's a massive shortfall.

2. It's Not Just About Rain on the Lake

One major misconception is that rain over the lake itself is what matters. Not quite. What fills Canyon Lake is rain that falls north of the lake in the Guadalupe River watershed. That rainfall turns into runoff, which feeds the lake. Right now, the worst of the drought—what officials called an “extraordinary drought”—is sitting right over that critical watershed.

3. Evaporation and Seepage Play a Role

Even when there is water in the lake, evaporation takes a big bite out of it—up to six feet per year. In hot, dry years like 2023, more than half of the water loss came from evaporation alone.

In addition, some of the lake’s water naturally seeps into the underlying aquifer. This isn’t new, and it’s part of the lake’s long-term hydrology. It’s just more noticeable when water levels are already low.

4. No, They're Not Selling More Water

A lot of people believe new developments are draining the lake dry or that water is being sold off at alarming rates. According to GBRA and the Texas Water Company, this simply isn't true.

There has been no increase in contracted water sales in over 20 years, and no new contracts are being approved right now. In fact, some developments have been denied access to Canyon Lake water to avoid overextending the supply.

When you see pipes being extended deeper into the lake, it's not because they're pulling more water—it’s because the water level is lower, and they need to reach their existing allocation.

5. Water Restrictions Are in Place

We’re currently in Stage Four water restrictions, which means a mandatory 15% cut to water wholesalers. That’s a direct action to reduce the strain on the lake, and officials are prepared to implement even stricter measures if the drought continues.

6. The Lake Will Come Back

Here’s the good news: Canyon Lake has been here before.

Back in 2002, the lake filled up twice in a single year thanks to massive rain events. Similar high-water events occurred in 2004, 2010, and 2015. These aren’t once-in-a-century phenomena—they happen regularly enough to remind us that Canyon Lake is resilient.

Experts say it’s not a matter of if the lake fills again—it’s a matter of when. Just one big rain event in the right place could bring Canyon Lake back to full capacity in a matter of weeks or months.

7. The Lake Is Still Very Much Alive

Despite being at around 45% capacity, Canyon Lake still holds a massive amount of water. Boating, wakeboarding, and even swimming are very much possible. The water is as beautiful as ever—clear, emerald green, and Caribbean-like.

Yes, some boat ramps are closed, but that doesn't mean the lake is off-limits. Many parts of the lake are still accessible, especially lakefront owners and for those using marinas or boat clubs.

8. Planning for the Future

Looking ahead, the agencies that manage Canyon Lake are making long-term plans that stretch 10, 20, even 50 years out. These include exploring alternative water sources like the Carrizo Aquifer and even potential pipelines from the Gulf Coast to ensure sustainable water supply—without increasing the draw from Canyon Lake.

Final Thoughts: Why Now Is the Time to Buy on Canyon Lake

Here’s a little insider tip: This might be the best time in years to buy a lake house on Canyon Lake. Why?

Because while others are caught up in the doom and gloom—thinking the lake is gone for good—you can use those misconceptions to your advantage. The truth is, Canyon Lake is still beautiful, still boatable, and absolutely still thriving. And savvy buyers are starting to take notice.

Right now, there are fantastic properties on the market at discounted prices—a rare opportunity in one of Texas’s most desirable lakefront areas. When the rains return (and they will), so will the crowds, the competition, and the pricing.

So, if you’ve ever dreamed of owning a place at the lake, this is your moment. Beat the wave. Get the views. Enjoy the peace and quiet now—and enjoy the equity bump later.

Canyon Lake isn’t just a place. It’s a lifestyle. And there’s never been a better time to make it yours.

See you at the lake!